Europe's summer flights at risk - Continent is heavily dependent on jet fuel imports
European vacationers may have to rethink their summer travel plans as airlines brace for flight cancellations due to a growing fuel supply crisis caused by the war with Iran. The crisis marks another wake-up call for a region grappling with energy security in an era of heightened geopolitical tensions.
Europe’s oil and gas industry has shrunk dramatically over the past 25 years: Production in the North Sea has declined and more than 30 refineries, or 16% of refining capacity, have closed across the continent.
The contraction reflects a combination of shrinking domestic demand, increased competition abroad and, increasingly over the past decade, a drive to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
First came the immediate loss of Russian natural gas supplies after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Then, the closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz during the war with Iran – now in its seventh week – has once again highlighted the risks of Europe’s growing exposure to international energy shocks.
Europe is more dependent on jet fuel imports than on any other transportation fuel. The region consumed about 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) last year, of which roughly 500,000 bpd were imported, according to the International Energy Agency. About 75% of those imports came from the Middle East. That dependence has left Europe highly exposed to a Gulf supply shock.
Refineries in Asia, which get about 60% of their crude imports from the Middle East, were forced to reduce operations by about 3 million barrels per day between February and April, according to the IEA. The pullback caused acute fuel shortages across Asia, prompting governments to respond with fuel-saving measures, subsidies and, in some cases, restrictions on fuel exports - including to China.
With Asian demand, European jet fuel benchmark prices rose to a record high of $1,800 a tonne on March 18, before falling to around $1,450 this week.
Europe has struggled to replace the lost Middle Eastern barrels. Jet fuel imports fell to roughly 437,000 barrels per day in March, 13% below the 2025 average, and are expected to fall further to just 275,000 barrels per day in April, according to analytics firm Kpler.
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