War slows down world economy - IMF predicts 3.1% growth in 2026, down from 3.4% previously
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1 percent in its World Economic Outlook report, while maintaining its forecast for 2027 at 3.2 percent.
This marks a slowdown from the estimated 3.4 percent growth achieved in 2025. The forecast includes the impact of the war and assumes that it will be limited in duration, intensity and scope, with disruptions fading by mid-2026. According to the baseline forecast, global inflation is expected to increase to 4.4 percent in 2026 and fall to 3.7 percent in 2027.
If the conflict and the subsequent rise in oil prices last longer, global economic growth in 2026 will fall to 2.5 percent, while global inflation will rise to 5.4 percent, according to the report.
In extreme cases, global economic growth in 2026 could fall to two percent, the report warned.
With great uncertainty over the conflict in the Middle East weighing on finance officials gathered for the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, the IMF presented three growth scenarios: weaker, worse and severe, depending on how the war unfolds.
The World Economic Outlook’s most optimistic “baseline scenario” assumes a short-term war in Iran and projects real GDP growth of 3.1% in 2026, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous forecast in January. Under this scenario, oil prices average $82 per barrel for all of 2026, down from recent levels of around $100 for Brent futures.
Absent the conflict in the Middle East, the IMF said it would have improved the growth outlook by 0.1 percentage point to 3.4%, due to a continued boom in technology investment, lower interest rates, less harsh US tariffs and fiscal support in some countries.
But the war has created a much greater risk to the global economy than President Donald Trump's initial wave of high tariffs a year ago, said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.
The Diaspora Business Chamber Summit brings together Albanian investors from around the world
The Diaspora Business Chamber has successfully organized the Economic Forum within the framework of the Diaspora Summit 2026, bringing to Tirana important......
Demo: Diaspora can become an actor of change in the territory by investing
Minister of State for Local Government, Ervin Demo, stated today that with its investments, the diaspora can become an actor of change in the......
Public transport in crisis - The number of buses and vans will be reduced by 40% tomorrow
After repeated calls for subsidies to cope with rising fuel prices, which received no response from institutions, public transport associations have decided to......
Oil goes to 215 lek/liter - Transparency Board publishes new fuel prices
The Transparency Board set new fuel prices at its meeting held on April 14, 2026, reflecting changes in international markets. According to the decision,......
The government "discharges" arrears - The stock is halved, the year ends with 58 million euros in debt
Arrears to businesses and citizens have been significantly reduced. Referring to official data from the Ministry of Finance, the stock of arrears from......
Rents in Albania, demand expected to increase during 2026/ The most sought-after areas in Tirana are under high pressure due to profits
A study published by Investropa shows that since the beginning of 2026, the rental market in Albania is experiencing a strong increase in demand, while......
Where can the diaspora invest? - Ibrahimaj: Innovation, energy and tourism, key sectors of the economy
Energy, tourism and innovation are just some of the key sectors where the diaspora can invest. In the panel “Diaspora, partners in business and innovation”,......
Fines of up to 10 million euros for money laundering - Draft/ From banks, foreign exchange offices and real estate agencies. who is affected
Financial and non-financial institutions, foreign exchange offices, notaries, real estate brokers and other independent legal professionals when involved in......
