Resurgence of US energy exports to China - Trump-Xi deal expected this week
US President Donald Trump will arrive in Beijing this week for a summit with President Xi Jinping on May 14 and 15, where US officials say a deal for Beijing to buy more US energy could be under consideration.
Tariffs imposed during the US-China trade war have halted most Chinese imports of US oil and LNG, which were worth $8.4 billion in 2024, a year before Trump began his second term.
China’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the U.S. tend to fluctuate with geopolitical events, creating an opportunity if relations improve, analysts say. During the trade war in 2019, during Trump’s first term, Chinese imports of U.S. LNG fell to just 260,000 metric tons, even as China’s overall imports of the supercooled fuel rose 15% to 59.4 million tons that year.
Two years and a trade deal later, the US exported 8.98 million tons of LNG to China, becoming the third largest supplier.
By 2024 this amount had fallen to 4.15 million tons and then fell to 26,000 tons in 2025, after China imposed a total tariff of 25% on US LNG in the trade war.
Falling imports are overshadowing purchases by Chinese buyers such as PetroChina and CNOOC to honor long-term contracts with U.S. producers signed between 2021 and 2023. Cargoes are being resold to Europe to avoid paying tariffs there. Rystad Energy estimates that about 12 million tonnes are contracted for delivery this year.
Analysts estimate that US LNG would be cheaper than Asian spot cargoes if Beijing were to remove its 25% tariff, given the market disruptions caused by the Iran war.
However, any increase in imports is likely to be limited, as China is expected to record another year of sluggish LNG demand. China is the world's largest oil importer, but the US has never been a major source of crude.
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