OPEC+ to increase oil production - 188,000 additional barrels, but decision remains on paper until Hormuz opens
OPEC+ agreed to a modest increase in oil production for June, which will remain largely on paper as long as the Iran war continues to disrupt Gulf oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
Seven OPEC+ countries will raise their oil production targets by 188,000 barrels per day in June, the third consecutive monthly increase. The increase is the same as that agreed for May minus the United Arab Emirates' share, which on May 1.
The move shows that the group is ready to increase supplies once the war stops and signals that OPEC+ is continuing with a business-as-usual approach despite the UAE's departure from OPEC+.
Analysts say that while production is rising on paper, the real impact on physical supply remains very limited given the restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. This has less to do with adding barrels and more to do with signaling that OPEC+ still has its say.
OPEC+'s top producer, Saudi Arabia, will increase its quota to 10.291 million barrels per day in June under the deal, well above current output. The kingdom reported current output of 7.76 million barrels per day to OPEC in March.
The seven members that met were Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia and Oman. With the departure of the United Arab Emirates, OPEC+ has 21 members, including Iran. But in recent years, only the seven nations plus the United Arab Emirates have been involved in monthly production decisions.
The Iran war, which began on February 28, and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz have hampered exports from OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, as well as the United Arab Emirates. Before the conflict, these producers were the only countries in the group able to increase production.
Even when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it will take weeks, if not months, for flows to normalize, Gulf oil executives and global oil traders said.
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