"There is no slowdown in the global economy" - IMF Chief Georgieva: Risks still remain high
The world economy is coping with the shock of war in the Middle East with no signs yet of a global slowdown, but risks remain high, the head of the International Monetary Fund said.
Kristalina Georgieva, who will brief G7 leaders on the global economy at a summit in France this week, welcomed the deal reached by the US and Iran on Sunday to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but warned in a new blog that an escalation of the conflict and supply disruptions posed a "clear risk to global growth".
The IMF will release an updated global growth forecast on July 8. In April, it released three scenarios for global GDP growth in 2026 and 2027, with the middle “adverse scenario” predicting a slowdown to 2.5% in 2026 and headline inflation of 5.4%.
Georgieva last month said the adverse scenario was already in play, but her latest comments suggest the IMF could return to its reference scenario, which assumed a short-term war with Iran and projected growth of 3.1% in 2026.
The US-Iran framework agreement marks the biggest progress towards resolving a war that began with joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran in late February, before escalating into a wider regional conflict that has killed thousands of people, upended energy markets and fueled fears of a recession for the global economy.
"More than three months after the start of the Middle East war, the global economy appears to be holding up. Commodity prices, inflation and inflation expectations, and financial conditions have been affected, but not yet in ways that signal a global slowdown," she wrote in a post on the IMF website.
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