The Greek economy, under Fitch's "loudspeak" - What are the "key" points that the credit rating agency will examine?
The Greek government is awaiting Fitch's decision on the country's economy, amid continued uncertainties due to the situation in the Middle East and having already revised downwards both growth and inflation for this year, something that was reflected in the Medium-Term Outlook, which was submitted to the European Commission.
However, there are significant risks that every investor must assess, which is also reflected in the perspective of the rating agencies. Greece still has a high public debt, despite the fact that it is decreasing as a percentage of GDP. This could cause concerns in periods of economic slowdown, or negative external shocks. Greece continues to have the highest public debt in all of Europe, although Italy is expected to surpass it by the end of 2026, at least according to the International Monetary Fund's forecasts.
So far, Greece has secured stable ratings from major international agencies, maintaining an investment-grade position despite debt challenges and fiscal pressures. But it remains at the low end of the "B" investment-grade scale. And that is not expected to change this year.
In addition, parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Greece no later than the first half of 2027. As a result, the possible results will also be "under the microscope" of the rating houses, which will start next fall, following those of Fitch.
It is characteristic that Standard & Poor's took a "wait and see" stance in its first assessment of the Greek economy this year, which was made public on April 24, under the weight of geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and energy pressures. The next assessment by the same agency is due in October.
S&P notes that it conducted its semi-annual assessment of Greece's creditworthiness, based on the most recent data, without publishing a new report. The agency upgraded Greece to investment grade last April.
The agency's decision was expected given the current situation. In addition, other international agencies have also taken the same cautious stance in the past.
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